Characterising abiotic stress environments to support
breeding climate-resilient barley in Australia

Climate change is altering Australian barley production environments, increasing exposure to heat, drought, and other abiotic stresses. Understanding how these stresses vary across regions and evolve over time is essential for developing climate-resilient cultivars and improving adaptation strategies.
This project uses crop modelling and envirotyping to characterise past, present and future abiotic stress patterns across Australian barley-growing regions. Long-term simulations using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) are used to assess historical climate impacts on barley productivity, identify major environment types within the target population of environments (TPE) and quantify their evolution over time. The research also investigates how crop phenology influences stress exposure across cultivars of different maturity types and shapes genotype-by-environment interactions.
Future climate scenarios will be investigated to assess projected changes in stress patterns and production environments in the near future. Adaptation strategies, including optimising sowing dates and selecting appropriate cultivar maturity, will be evaluated to reduce exposure to damaging stresses and improve yield stability.
Through environmental characterisation and crop modelling, this research aims to inform breeding trial design, support the selection of climate-resilient germplasm, and identify management strategies to sustain barley productivity under changing climatic conditions.